| Abstract | Prekomjerno iseljavanje važno je demografsko i društveno-političko pitanje u Republici Hrvatskoj. Konceptualni okvir ovog istraživanja predstavlja teorija planiranog djelovanja (Ajzen, 1991), dosad provjeravana u nekoliko stranih istraživanja u kontekstu iseljavanja. S obzirom na to da su psihološki čimbenici namjere odlaska i namjere ostanka u Hrvatskoj relativno neistraženi, cilj ovog istraživanja bio je ispitati doprinos stava prema odlasku i ostanku, subjektivnih normi u vezi s odlaskom i ostankom, percipirane kontrole u vezi s odlaskom i ostankom te vrijednosti u objašnjenju varijance namjere odlaska i ostanka u Hrvatskoj. U tu svrhu provedeno je online korelacijsko istraživanje na prigodnom uzorku od 414 sudionika od čega je njih 225 imalo status rezidenta, a 189 status emigranta. Sudionici su ispunjavali Upitnik za predviđanje namjere odlaska iz Hrvatske, Upitnik za predviđanje namjere ostanka u Hrvatskoj, Prikaz osobnih vrijednosti te Upitnik općih podataka. Rezultati ispitivanja faktorske strukture Upitnika za predviđanje namjere odlaska iz Hrvatske i Upitnika za predviđanje namjere ostanka u Hrvatskoj ukazuju na peto-faktorsku strukturu (stav prema pozitivnim aspektima odlaska i ostanka, stav prema negativnim aspektima odlaska i ostanka, subjektivne norme u vezi s odlaskom i ostankom, percipirana bihevioralna kontrola u vezi s odlaskom i ostankom, namjera odlaska i namjera ostanka). Osim toga, utvrđeno je da su kod rezidenata i emigranata značajni pozitivni prediktori namjere odlaska stav prema pozitivnim aspektima odlaska i percipirana kontrola u vezi s ostankom, dok je stav prema pozitivnim aspektima ostanka značajan negativan prediktor. Kod rezidenata je utvrđen i značajan pozitivan doprinos subjektivnih normi u vezi s odlaskom te značajan negativan doprinos percipirane kontrole u vezi s odlaskom, subjektivnih normi u vezi s ostankom te zadržavanja tradicionalnih odnosa u objašnjenju varijance namjere odlaska. U objašnjenju varijance namjere ostanka kod rezidenata i emigranata utvrđen je značajan negativan doprinos stava prema pozitivnim aspektima odlaska i percipirane kontrole u vezi s ostankom kao i značajan pozitivan doprinos stava prema pozitivnim aspektima ostanka. Također, na poduzorku rezidenata dobiven je značajan pozitivan doprinos percipirane kontrole u vezi s odlaskom, subjektivnih normi u vezi s ostankom i zadržavanja tradicionalnih odnosa te značajan negativan doprinos subjektivnih normi u vezi s odlaskom i vlastitog probitka. Kod emigranata je utvrđen još značajan pozitivan doprinos otvorenosti za promjene u objašnjenju varijance namjere ostanka. |
| Abstract (english) | Excessive emigration has been an important demographic and socio-political issue in the Republic of Croatia. The conceptual framework of this research is the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1991) which is so far tested in several foreign studies in the context of emigration. Since the psychological factors of emigration intention and intention to stay in Croatia are relatively unexplored, this study aimed to examine the contribution of attitudes toward emigration and stay, subjective norms related to emigration and stay, perceived behavioral control related to emigration and stay and values in explaining the variance of emigration intention and intention to stay in Croatia. For this purpose, an online correlation survey was conducted on a convenience sample of 414 participants, of whom 225 had resident status and 189 had expatriate status. Participants completed the Questionnaire for predicting the intention to emigrate from Croatia, Questionnaire for predicting intention to stay in Croatia, Portrait values questionnaire-PVQ 21 and General information questionnaire. The results of the examination of the factorial structure of Questionnaire for predicting the intention to emigrate from Croatia and Questionnaire for predicting intention to stay in Croatia indicated a five-factor structure (attitude toward positive aspects of emigration and staying, attitude toward negative aspects of emigration and staying, subjective norms related to emigration and staying, perceived behavioral control related to emigration and staying, emigration intention and intention to stay). What is more, the results of conducted analyses showed that, on both subgroups, attitude toward positive aspects of emigration and perceived behavioral control related to staying are positive predictors, while attitude toward positive aspects of stay is a significant negative predictor of emigration intention. On the subgroup of residents, there was also a significant positive contribution of subjective norms related to emigration and significant negative contribution of perceived behavioral control related to emigration, subjective norms related to staying and conservation in explaining the variance of emigration intention. Moreover, in explaining the variance of intention to stay in Croatia, both on the subgroup of residents and subgroup of emigrants, the significant negative contribution of attitude toward positive aspects of emigration and perceived behavioral control related to staying and significant positive contribution of attitude toward positive aspects of staying were found. Also, only on the subgroup of residents, the results obtained significant positive contribution of perceived behavioral control related to emigration, subjective norms related to staying and conservation but also a significant negative contribution of subjective norms related to emigration and self-enhancement. On the subgroup of emigrants, there was also a significant positive contribution of openness to change in explaining the variance of intention to stay. |
