master's thesis
Psychologikal effects in decision making

Željka Landek (2016)
Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics in Osijek
Chair of Economics and Business Management
Metadata
TitlePsihološki utjecaji u odlučivanju
AuthorŽeljka Landek
Mentor(s)Marina Jeger (thesis advisor)
Abstract
U ovom diplomskom radu obrađena je tema psihološki utjecaji u odlučivanju, s naglaskom na kognitivne pristranosti s kojima se suočavaju donositelji odluka u uvjetima rizika. Rizik je sastavni dio odlučivanja. Svaka situacija u kojoj se donositelj odluke nađe uključuje u sebi određeni rizik. U uvjetima velike neizvjesnosti i rizika broj pogrešaka u odlučivanju se povećava. Razlog tome je što u situacijama velike neizvjesnosti i pojačanog stresa menadžeri nisu u mogućnosti sasvim objektivno procijeniti ispravnost odluke, te se izbor vrši prema načelu pokušaja i pogreške, odnosno na temelju uzastopnog traženja rješenja. U praksi, pri donošenju odluka, menadžeri se najčešće nalaze u situacijama rizika. Kognitivna pristranost koja je istraživana u radu je zamka formuliranja okvira u uvjetima rizika. Formuliranje okvira u uvjetima rizika podrazumijeva naglašavanje pozitivnih, odnosno negativnih aspekata ishoda sigurne i ishoda rizične opcije. Prethodna istraživanja pokazala su kako rizične opcije češće odabiru ispitanici kojima je prikazan negativno formuliran okvir problema, nego ispitanici kojima je prikazan pozitivno formuliran okvir problema. Cilj istraživanja je bio ispitati u kojoj mjeri djeluje formuliranje okvira na odgovore ispitanika, odnosno hoće li ispitanici u pozitivnom formuliranju okvira preferirati sigurnu, bez rizičnu opciju u kojoj se naglašavaju sigurni dobici, bez gubitaka, i hoće li u negativnom formuliranju okvira preferirati rizičnu opciju, kako bi izbjegli sigurne gubitke. Općenito, veća je sklonost ljudi da će prije odabrati rizičnu opciju kako bi izbjegli gubitke, nego li postigli dobitke. Važno je naglasiti kako je okvir koji donositelj odluke usvoji određen djelomično formulacijom problema, ali i djelomično osobnim karakteristikama i pristranostima samog donositelja odluke. Navedeni čimbenici oblikuju referentnu točku iz koje se prilazi problemu.
Keywordsdecision-making cognitive biases framing effect risky-choice tasks
Parallel title (English)Psychologikal effects in decision making
Committee MembersMarina Jeger (committee chairperson)
Julia Perić (committee member)
Ivan Ferenčak (committee member)
GranterJosip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics in Osijek
Lower level organizational unitsChair of Economics and Business Management
PlaceOsijek
StateCroatia
Scientific field, discipline, subdisciplineSOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Organization and Management
Study programme typeuniversity
Study levelgraduate
Study programmeEntrepreneurship
Academic title abbreviationmag.oec.
Genremaster's thesis
Language Croatian
Defense date2016-06-10
Parallel abstract (English)
The focus of the thesis is on psychological effects in decision making with an emphasis on cognitive biases that influence the final decision in risky environment. In the context of management decision making, a certain level of risk is almost always included in the process. Making decision in risky conditions in even more challenging due to additional stress and lack of information (implying higher uncertainty), and managers tend to apply trial and error method. In such situations, it is important to be aware of all the factors that influence final decision in order to reduces the effect of all factors that may be misleading. Cognitive bias that has been examined in the thesis is framing effect in risky conditions. Framing effect in risky conditions implies emphasizing positive or negative aspects of a safe option outcome or a risky option outcome. As a result one can expect that the risky options will be chosen more often by the respondents that have been presented with negatively framed versions, than by the ones who have been presented with the positively framed versions. The main goal of the research was to examine to what extent the framing effect influence the evaluations of the respondents. The main questions are 1) will the respondents affected by positively framed versions prefer safe (riskless option) in which the emphasis is on safe gains, without any possible losses, and 2) will the respondents in negatively framed versions prefer more risky options to avoid guaranteed losses. Generally speaking, more people are leaning towards choosing a risky option to avoid losses, than to achieve gains. It should be noted that the framing effect that decision maker adopts is partially determent by the way problem has been formulated and also partially by respondents personal characteristics and biases. These factors define the reference point from which the problem is approached.
Parallel keywords (Croatian)odlučivanje kognitivne pristranosti formuliranje okvira zadaci rizičnog izbora
Resource typetext
Access conditionAccess restricted to students and staff of home institution
Terms of usehttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
URN:NBNhttps://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:390084
CommitterGordana Kradijan