Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima

Meštrić, Josip

prikaz prve stranice dokumenta Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima

master's thesis

Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima

Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, 2022. urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

Meštrić, Josip

University of Zagreb
Faculty of Science
Department of Geophysics

Cite this document

APA 6th Edition

Meštrić, J. (2022). Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima (Master's thesis). Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

MLA 8th Edition

Meštrić, Josip. "Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima." Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, 2022. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

Chicago 17th Edition

Harvard

Meštrić, J. (2022). 'Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima', Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, accessed 22 December 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

Vancouver

Meštrić J. Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima [Master's thesis]. Zagreb: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science; 2022 [cited 2024 December 22] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

IEEE

J. Meštrić, "Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima", Master's thesis, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Zagreb, 2022. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

Cite this item: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:217:486370

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Title	Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima
Title (english)	Analysis of the grapevine phenological characteristics by statistical models and a plant model in present and future climate
Author	Josip Meštrić
Mentor	Maja Telišman-Prtenjak (mentor)
Mentor	Branimir Omazić (sumentor) MBZ: 389313
Committee member	Maja Telišman-Prtenjak (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee member	Antun Marki (član povjerenstva)
Committee member	Ivica Sović (član povjerenstva)
Committee member	Željko Večenaj (član povjerenstva)
Committee member	Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
Granter	University of Zagreb Faculty of Science (Department of Geophysics) Zagreb
Defense date and country	2022-09-14, Croatia
Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline	NATURAL SCIENCES Geophysics Meteorology and Climatology
Abstract	Ovaj rad bavi se proučavanjem utjecaja meteoroloških uvjeta na trendove početka određenih fenoloških faza vinove loze. U tu svrhu koristili su se osnovni agroklimatološki indeksi GDD i GST. Također, upotrebom statističkih modela simulirali su se nastupi fenoloških faza pupanja, cvatnje, šare i berbe. Statistički pristup kombiniran je i primjenom modela za rast biljaka (model STICS). Sam model STICS testiran je na mjerenjima za dvije sorte vinove loze (’Graševina’ i ’Plavac mali’) i na četiri lokacije; dvije smještene u unutrašnjosti Hrvatske (Daruvar i Križevci) te na dvijema uz obalu Jadrana (Hvar i Lastovo). Uspješnost statističkog modela na temelju akumulirane topline pokazala se vrlo dobrom za sve postaje za berbu kao i za cvatnju, osim postaje Hvar. Lošiji rezultati dobili su se za šaru na gotovo svim postajama te za pupanje izuzev postaje Daruvar. Višestruka linearna regresija pokazala je manju uspješnost. Prilikom mjerenja model STICS pokazao je zadovoljavajuće rezultate na tri od četiri promatrane postaje. Model STICS primijenjen je i na izlazne rezultate klimatskog modela koji je dao rezultate u dva razdoblja: 1999.-2009. godine te 2043.-2053. godine. Navedeni model pokazao se učinkovitim i samim time primjenjivim za simulaciju nastupa fenoloških faza. Uz navedeno, simulirao je i raniji nastup fenofaza u budućoj klimi za gotovo sve postaje.
Abstract (english)	This paper deals with analyzing the influence of meteorological conditions on the starting trends of certain phenological phases of grapevine. For this purpose, the basic agroclimatic indexes GDD and GST were used. In addition, the occurances of different phenological phases, that being budding, flowering, veraisoning and harvesting, were also simulated using statistical models. This statistical approach is also combined with the application of a plant growth model (STICS model). The STICS model itself was tested on measurements for two grapevine varieties (’Graševina’ and ’Plavac mali’) and on four locations; two of which were located in the interior of Croatia (Daruvar and Križevci), while the other two were on the Adriatic coast (Hvar and Lastovo). The success of the statistical model based on accumulated heat was proven to be very good for all harvesting and flowering stations, except for the Hvar station. Worse results were obtained for chara at almost all stations, as well as for budding, with the exception of the Daruvar station. Multiple linear regression showed less success. During the measuring process, the STICS model showed satisfactory results at three of the four observed stations. The STICS model was also applied to the output results of the climate model, which produced results in two periods: 1999-2009. and 2043-2053. The mentioned model was proven to be effective and therefore applicable for simulations of the performance of different phenological phases. In addition, it simulated the earlier occurrence of phenophases in the future climate for almost all stations.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Language	croatian
URN:NBN	urn:nbn:hr:217:486370
Project	Number: IZHRZO-180587 Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate Acronym: SWALDRIC Leader: Maja Telišman Prtenjak Jurisdiction: Croatia Funder: HRZZ Funding stream: HSIP
Study programme	Title: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Course: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Study programme type: university Study level: graduate Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
Type of resource	Text
File origin	Born digital
Access conditions	Open access
Terms of use
Repository	Repository of the Faculty of Science
Created on	2022-09-19 10:27:25